The mission is more Bitcoin, and to be the source people use to get it. After the close, six lines: Action Today for the Trading Stack, the Daily Buy Size, the Regime, Momentum from −5 to +5, Valuation from Very Cool to Hot, and the Next Price Level. We count the result in Bitcoin. A dollar figure is that Bitcoin total at the latest price.
Not financial advice. A general publication. Your money, your decision.
Daily call
October 26, 2026
based on the Oct 26 close
BTC close
$79,950
Action Today
HOLD Trading Stack
Daily Buy Size
1x Buy
Regime
BULL · 68 days
Momentum
+2 (Fading)
Valuation
Cheap
No change since October 25, 2026
Next Price Level
$76,432
Regime flips BEAR
−4.4% from the close
Price alone may not trigger.
All levels
$76,432−4.4%Regime flips BEAR
$64,892−18.8%Buy 3×
$118,969+48.8%Buy 0.5×
$129,785+62.3%Sell 1/3 of Trading Stack (price alone may not trigger)
$135,192+69.1%Skip Daily Buy
General information only, not financial advice. Rules-based model; backtests are hypothetical.
What the daily guide publishes
Six lines, each in service of a larger Bitcoin stack. Very Cool: 3x Buy, about $75 if you buy $25 a day. Cool: 1x Buy. Normal: 1x Buy. Getting Warm: 0.5x Buy, about $12.50. Warm or Hot: 0x Buy, which buys no Bitcoin that day. On a 0x day the day's budget goes into the Skipped-Buy Reserve, and on a 0.5x day half of it does. Each day buys only its own multiple of your normal daily amount.
Action Today
Applies only to the Trading Stack. A suggested start is about 30% of your Bitcoin. You can choose another share, or none. The call works the same either way. Hold it. Sell only when very overheated. The Hold Stack stays put.
Daily Buy Size
Very Cool: 3x Buy, about $75 if you buy $25 a day. Cool: 1x Buy. Normal: 1x Buy. Getting Warm: 0.5x Buy, about $12.50. Warm or Hot: 0x Buy, which buys no Bitcoin that day. On a 0x day the day's budget goes into the Skipped-Buy Reserve, and on a 0.5x day half of it does. Each day buys only its own multiple of your normal daily amount.
Regime
Bull or bear, and how many days the current Regime has lasted.
Momentum
A score from −5 to +5 and a word. +3 (Fading) is an example of the line.
Valuation
A word from Very Cool to Hot. Very Cool is a 3x Buy. Cool and Normal are a 1x Buy. Getting Warm is a 0.5x Buy. Warm and Hot are a 0x Buy.
Next Price Level
The next published level, and how far it is from the close. Price alone may not trigger it.
How it works
How the guide stacks more Bitcoin.
The aim is more BTC than a plain schedule would have bought. A suggested starting point, not a rule, is about 70% in a Hold Stack you keep and never trade, and about 30% in a Trading Stack. You choose what percentage of your Bitcoin, if any, goes in the Trading Stack, from your own goals and risk tolerance. The daily call works the same whatever split you pick. Action Today applies only to that sleeve: you hold it, and you sell only when Valuation is very overheated. You also keep buying every day. Very Cool: 3x Buy, about $75 if you buy $25 a day. Cool: 1x Buy. Normal: 1x Buy. Getting Warm: 0.5x Buy, about $12.50. Warm or Hot: 0x Buy, which buys no Bitcoin that day. On a 0x day the day's budget goes into the Skipped-Buy Reserve, and on a 0.5x day half of it does. Each day buys only its own multiple of your normal daily amount. The score is coins, not dollars.
About 70%Hold Stack, suggested start
About 30%Trading Stack, suggested start
Suggested start · About 70%
Hold Stack
About 70% is the suggested share you keep and never trade. Action Today leaves this stack alone, in a bull Regime and in a bear Regime. A different share is fine.
Suggested start · About 30%
Trading Stack
About 30% is the suggested sleeve. You choose the percentage, or none. Action Today applies only to it. You hold this sleeve, and you sell only when Valuation is very overheated. The daily call works the same whatever split you pick. The Trading Stack sells in three steps (a third, then half of what's left, then the rest) and is fully out at the top. It buys back in equal daily amounts over about three months once Bitcoin reaches deep-value territory, or all at once if price rises 25%.
On your schedule
Daily DCA Stack
Buy every day, no matter what Action Today says. Very Cool: 3x Buy, about $75 if you buy $25 a day. Cool: 1x Buy. Normal: 1x Buy. Getting Warm: 0.5x Buy, about $12.50. Warm or Hot: 0x Buy, which buys no Bitcoin that day. On a 0x day the day's budget goes into the Skipped-Buy Reserve, and on a 0.5x day half of it does. Each day buys only its own multiple of your normal daily amount.
Skipped-Buy Reserve
On a 0x day the day's budget goes into a cash reserve, and on a 0.5x day half of it does. The first Very Cool day spends that reserve in 90 equal daily buys. It never sells Bitcoin, and those buys go to the Hold Stack. Since 2014, Smart Daily Buys end with more Bitcoin than keeping the skipped cash. The percentage versus plain DCA is lower because that saved money counts as spent.
Bonus Buy Zone
When a Very Cool buy zone starts in a cycle where the Trading Stack made no top sells and still holds, the daily call can show a Bonus Buy Zone. It is optional spare cash, never borrowed money, in 90 equal daily buys. Optional spare cash. Shown in the With Bonus Buys total. It fired in March 2020 and February 2026.
Not financial advice
This is general information, not a plan for your account, and not financial advice. About 70% and about 30% are a suggested starting point, not a rule. You choose what percentage of your Bitcoin, if any, goes in the Trading Stack, from your own goals and risk tolerance. The daily call works the same whatever split you pick. If you do not want to sell any Bitcoin, skip the Trading Stack. The scheduled buy can still stand on its own.
The base buy is $25 from mid-May 2014 through October 21, 2026. Recurring daily buys are fee-free. Reserve buys pay 0.5%. The Trading Stack pays 0.5% on each sell and buy-back. Since mid-May 2014, Smart Daily Buys end with 125.966 BTC from $144,775 in. Plain DCA put in $113,525. Very Cool days buy more than $25, and skipped dollars are spent later from the Skipped-Buy Reserve, so the cash totals differ. Once that reserve is spent it counts as cash in. That raises the Bitcoin total and lowers the percentage versus plain DCA. The Trading Stack is separate: each window starts with 1 BTC and makes no new buys. Dollar figures beside each Bitcoin total use today's price of $79,950. The count is in Bitcoin. Dollars show that total at the latest price.
More Bitcoin than plain DCA
Smart Daily Buys
Since 2014, Smart Daily Buys end with 125.966 BTC. Keeping the skipped cash, instead of the Skipped-Buy Reserve, would have been 109.139 BTC. On a 0x day the day's budget goes into that reserve, and on a 0.5x day half of it does. The first Very Cool day spends it in 90 equal daily buys. The reserve never sells Bitcoin. +33.4%, +$2,518,945 at today's price, counts the reserve money as spent, so the percentage is lower than an unspent-cash comparison.
Since 2014
+33.4%
+$2,518,945
125.966 BTC ($10,071,015)
vs plain DCA 74.071 BTC ($5,921,939)
Cash in: $144,775. Plain DCA cash in: $113,525.
Since 2018
+33.2%
+$166,386
8.343 BTC ($667,003)
vs plain DCA 4.950 BTC ($395,768)
Cash in: $101,700. Plain DCA cash in: $80,400.
Since 2020
+18.9%
+$40,867
3.218 BTC ($257,253)
vs plain DCA 2.152 BTC ($172,085)
Cash in: $78,150. Plain DCA cash in: $62,150.
Since 2022
+25.4%
+$28,205
1.743 BTC ($139,314)
vs plain DCA 1.033 BTC ($82,590)
Cash in: $59,025. Plain DCA cash in: $43,875.
Since 2023
+12.2%
+$7,474
0.857 BTC ($68,489)
vs plain DCA 0.666 BTC ($53,274)
Cash in: $39,800. Plain DCA cash in: $34,750.
Since 2024
+4.9%
+$1,412
0.381 BTC ($30,441)
vs plain DCA 0.337 BTC ($26,976)
Cash in: $27,575. Plain DCA cash in: $25,625.
Since 2025
+8.4%
+$1,450
0.233 BTC ($18,624)
vs plain DCA 0.192 BTC ($15,357)
Cash in: $18,425. Plain DCA cash in: $16,475.
Example
Example: $25 a day since 2014: 125.966 BTC, worth about $10,071,015 today, from $144,775 in. Plain DCA has 74.071 BTC, worth about $5,921,939 today, from $113,525 in.
That is 125.966 BTC. +33.4%, +$2,518,945 versus plain DCA of the same cash, counts the saved reserve money as spent, so the percentage is lower than an unspent-cash comparison.
103 of 116 start months from 2014 to 2023 finished ahead, and 13 finished behind. The year starts on these tiles all have a lower average cost than plain DCA.
Hypothetical backtest. $25 per day, May 2014 (or Jan 1 of the start year) through Oct 21, 2026. Skipped dollars go into the Skipped-Buy Reserve and are spent in 90 equal daily buys on the first Very Cool day. That reserve cash counts as spent, which raises Bitcoin and lowers the percentage versus plain DCA. The reserve never sells Bitcoin. Recurring daily buys assumed fee-free (as on River). Reserve buys pay 0.5%. The Trading Stack pays 0.5% on each sell and buy-back.
Versus holding, no new buys
Trading Stack
Each window starts with 1 BTC and makes no new buys. This is the Trading Stack on its own, not the Smart Daily Buys mixed in. The Trading Stack sells in three steps (a third, then half of what's left, then the rest) and is fully out at the top. It buys back in equal daily amounts over about three months once Bitcoin reaches deep-value territory, or all at once if price rises 25%.
Since 2014
+1026%
+$820,287
With Bonus Buys: 12.802 BTC (+80.1%, +$54,799)
11.26 BTC ($900,237)
vs holding 1 BTC ($79,950)
Since 2018
+159%
+$127,121
2.59 BTC ($207,071)
vs holding 1 BTC ($79,950)
Follows the published calls from this date. The 2017 sells had already happened, so the Trading Stack simply held.
Since 2020
+159%
+$127,121
2.59 BTC ($207,071)
vs holding 1 BTC ($79,950)
Since 2022
0%
$0
1.00 BTC ($79,950)
vs holding 1 BTC ($79,950)
No trades yet this cycle. The 2024–25 top never got hot enough to sell, so the Trading Stack simply held, and you still matched plain DCA with no downside.
Example
Example: a $100,000 stack on January 1, 2020 ended with 35.971 BTC, worth about $2,875,911 today. Simply holding ended with 13.889 BTC, worth about $1,110,390 today.
Priced at the January 1, 2020 close of $7,200.17.
It acts rarely, only when Bitcoin badly overheats. Most of the gain came from selling near the 2017 and 2021 tops and buying back slowly in the bear markets that followed. It has matched simply holding since 2022.
Most of the gain came from selling near the 2017 and 2021 tops and buying back slowly in the bear markets that followed.
Smart Daily Buys
Trading Stack
Hold Stack
70/30 with these buys, versus plain DCA
Whole Stack
Since 2014, the Whole Stack ends with 443.882 BTC. About 70% of each regular daily buy stays in the Hold Stack and about 30% is the Trading Stack. Skipped-Buy Reserve buys go entirely to the Hold Stack. That split is a suggested starting point, not a rule. +369.9%, +$27,936,286 at today's price, counts the reserve money as spent.
Since 2014
+369.9%
+$27,936,286
443.882 BTC ($35,488,356)
vs plain DCA 74.071 BTC ($5,921,939)
Cash in: $144,775. Plain DCA cash in: $113,525.
Since 2018
+67.3%
+$337,045
10.477 BTC ($837,662)
vs plain DCA 4.950 BTC ($395,768)
Cash in: $101,700. Plain DCA cash in: $80,400.
Since 2020
+36.6%
+$79,169
3.697 BTC ($295,556)
vs plain DCA 2.152 BTC ($172,085)
Cash in: $78,150. Plain DCA cash in: $62,150.
Since 2022
+25.4%
+$28,205
1.743 BTC ($139,314)
vs plain DCA 1.033 BTC ($82,590)
Cash in: $59,025. Plain DCA cash in: $43,875.
Since 2023
+12.2%
+$7,474
0.857 BTC ($68,489)
vs plain DCA 0.666 BTC ($53,274)
Cash in: $39,800. Plain DCA cash in: $34,750.
Since 2024
+4.9%
+$1,412
0.381 BTC ($30,441)
vs plain DCA 0.337 BTC ($26,976)
Cash in: $27,575. Plain DCA cash in: $25,625.
Since 2025
+8.4%
+$1,450
0.233 BTC ($18,624)
vs plain DCA 0.192 BTC ($15,357)
Cash in: $18,425. Plain DCA cash in: $16,475.
Hypothetical backtest. $25 per day, May 2014 (or Jan 1 of the start year) through Oct 21, 2026. Skipped dollars go into the Skipped-Buy Reserve and are spent in 90 equal daily buys on the first Very Cool day. That reserve cash counts as spent, which raises Bitcoin and lowers the percentage versus plain DCA. The reserve never sells Bitcoin. Recurring daily buys assumed fee-free (as on River). Reserve buys pay 0.5%. The Trading Stack pays 0.5% on each sell and buy-back.
Per $ Added
Bonus Buy Zone
Optional spare cash. Shown in the With Bonus Buys total, not in the result above. A Bonus Buy Zone fired in March 2020 and on February 5, 2026, when a Very Cool buy zone opened in a cycle where the Trading Stack made no top sells and still held. The 2026 example puts 1 BTC of cash at the zone start, $63,495, into 90 equal daily buys through May 5, 2026. That buys 0.893 BTC at an average of $71,088. Per $1,000 added, that is 0.014 BTC. Use spare cash you already have. Never borrowed money. Spending extra cash through a long bear can deepen the dollar decline, and five bottoms is a small sample, not a guarantee. These buys never sell Bitcoin.
DCA with guardrails
Track Record vs Plain DCA
Bought Bitcoin at a lower average cost than plain DCA from the start of every year since 2014.
103 of 116 start months from 2014 to 2023 finished ahead, and 13 finished behind. The worst is about -10.5%. That is -$311,952 at today's price. The months that trail run from November 2015 through November 2016. Of 150 start months since 2014, 135 are ahead, 2 are tied, and 13 are behind.
Formula BTC is DCA with guardrails. Very Cool is a 3x Buy, Cool and Normal are a 1x Buy, Getting Warm is a 0.5x Buy, and Warm or Hot is a 0x Buy. On a 0x day the day's budget goes into the Skipped-Buy Reserve, and on a 0.5x day half of it does.
Some calendar months finish behind plain DCA. The record here is each start month's full result through today, not a win every month.
Since May 2014, Formula BTC has 125.966 BTC, worth about $10,071,015 at today's price, from $144,775 in. Plain DCA has 74.071 BTC, worth about $5,921,939, from $113,525 in. That is +33.4%, +$2,518,945 versus plain DCA of the same cash. Cash in differs because Very Cool days buy more than $25 and skipped dollars are spent later from the Skipped-Buy Reserve. Once that reserve is spent it counts as cash in, which raises Bitcoin and lowers the percentage versus plain DCA.
Cumulative Bitcoin since May 2014
Running total of Bitcoin from the daily buys. Plain DCA spends its cash every day. Formula BTC skips some days, so the cash in can differ. The mark is the first live month.
Formula BTC
Plain DCA
Live track starts October 2026
Results are backtested through the live start date. The live track starts October 2026, and earlier months are the backtest. October 2026 is a partial month. Daily buys are assumed fee-free. Reserve buys pay 0.5%.
The percentage, and the dollar line under it, compare Bitcoin per dollar with plain DCA of the same cash. Hypothetical backtest, not a guarantee.
3x Buy
1x Buy
0.5x Buy
0x Buy
◆ Reserve buy
Smart Daily Buys
Plain DCA
Each day is colored by the Daily Buy Size used that day, from May 17, 2014 through October 21, 2026 (4,541 days). About 14% of days are a 3x Buy, 55% are a 1x Buy, 6% are a 0.5x Buy, and 25% are a 0x Buy. Each day buys only its own multiple of $25. Shaded bands are Skipped-Buy Reserve buys, 90 days each. The blue line is cumulative Bitcoin from Smart Daily Buys, including Skipped-Buy Reserve buys, and the dashed line is plain DCA of $25 every day. Both run from the start date through the latest close. Each day buys its own size at that close. Recurring daily buys are fee-free. Reserve buys pay 0.5%.
Trading Stack
Trading Stack Sells and Buy-backs
Fully held · 11.26 BTC from 1.0 since 2014
BTC price
Stack BTC
Buy-back window
★ Bonus Buy Zone
With Bonus Buys
▲ Buy back
▼ Sell
10 trades since 2014. The Trading Stack starts at 1 BTC and makes no new buys. Core Bitcoin is not sold. Stack BTC after each trade starts from 1.0. It acts rarely, only when Bitcoin badly overheats. The Trading Stack sells in three steps (a third, then half of what's left, then the rest) and is fully out at the top. It buys back in equal daily amounts over about three months once Bitcoin reaches deep-value territory, or all at once if price rises 25%. The ending 11.26 BTC includes the 0.5% fee on each sell and buy-back.
Trade
Date
Price
Size
Stack BTC after
Bonus Buy Stack BTC
Sell
August 20, 2017
$4,086
Sell 1/3
0.667
0.667
Buy
October 12, 2017
$5,394
Price rose 25%: buy back
0.917
0.917
Sell
November 26, 2017
$9,320
Sell half
0.458
0.458
Buy
December 5, 2017
$11,737
Price rose 25%: buy back
0.819
0.819
Sell
December 16, 2017
$19,641
Sell all
0.000
0.000
Buy
November 26, 2018 to February 23, 2019
$3,675
Buy back in daily slices (90 days)
4.353
4.353
Bonus Buys
March 12, 2020 to June 9, 2020
$7,648
90 daily buys
4.353
5.002
Sell
February 18, 2021
$51,650
Sell 1/3
2.902
3.551
Sell
March 10, 2021
$56,116
Sell half
1.451
2.100
Sell
April 12, 2021
$59,906
Sell all
0.000
0.648
Buy
June 13, 2022 to September 10, 2022
$21,500
Buy back in daily slices (90 days)
11.261
11.909
Bonus Buys
February 5, 2026 to May 5, 2026
$71,088
90 daily buys
11.261
12.802
Stack BTC after starts from 1.0. Bonus Buy Stack BTC adds optional spare cash and ends at the With Bonus Buys total.
Bonus Buys (optional spare cash)
Dates
Buys
Avg price
Cash in
BTC bought
Value today
Bonus Buy Stack BTC
March 12, 2020 to June 9, 2020
90 daily buys
$7,648
$4,959
0.648 BTC
$51,843 (+945.4%, +$46,883)
5.002
February 5, 2026 to May 5, 2026
90 daily buys
$71,088
$63,495
0.893 BTC
$71,410 (+12.5%, +$7,916)
12.802
Hypothetical backtest, not a guarantee
Education, not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones.
The base buy is $25 from mid-May 2014 through October 21, 2026. Recurring daily buys are fee-free. Reserve buys pay 0.5%. The Trading Stack pays 0.5% on each sell and buy-back.
Hypothetical backtest. $25 per day, May 2014 (or Jan 1 of the start year) through Oct 21, 2026. Skipped dollars go into the Skipped-Buy Reserve and are spent in 90 equal daily buys on the first Very Cool day. That reserve cash counts as spent, which raises Bitcoin and lowers the percentage versus plain DCA. The reserve never sells Bitcoin. Recurring daily buys assumed fee-free (as on River). Reserve buys pay 0.5%. The Trading Stack pays 0.5% on each sell and buy-back. That footnote is the Smart Daily Buys and the Whole Stack. The Trading Stack starts with 1 BTC and makes no new buys.
About 70% and about 30% are a suggested starting point, not a rule.
No trades yet this cycle. The 2024–25 top never got hot enough to sell, so the Trading Stack simply held, and you still matched plain DCA with no downside.
Most of the gain came from selling near the 2017 and 2021 tops and buying back slowly in the bear markets that followed.
Taxes are ignored. The rules were written with this history already in view, so this is not a blind test.
Dollar figures beside each Bitcoin total use today's price of $79,950.
Free Formula BTC Alerts
The Daily Call card on this site updates every day. You only get an email when something changes, with a short note on what changed and what it means for you. Every line and every price level. The count is in Bitcoin. Dollars show that total at the latest price.
The daily guide for stacking as much Bitcoin as possible. After each daily close we publish six lines: Action Today, Daily Buy Size, Regime, Momentum, Valuation, and Next Price Level. The goal is more Bitcoin than plain dollar-cost averaging, so we measure results in Bitcoin, not dollars.
How do the stacks work?
+
About 70% in a Hold Stack and about 30% in a Trading Stack is a suggested starting point, not a rule. You choose what percentage of your Bitcoin, if any, goes in the Trading Stack, from your own goals and risk tolerance. The daily call works the same whatever split you pick. Action Today applies only to the Trading Stack: hold it, and sell only when very overheated. The Trading Stack sells in three steps (a third, then half of what's left, then the rest) and is fully out at the top. It buys back in equal daily amounts over about three months once Bitcoin reaches deep-value territory, or all at once if price rises 25%. You also buy on a fixed schedule, and the Daily Buy Size scales that purchase. This is not financial advice. The How it works page has the longer version.
Is this financial advice?
+
No. It is general information from a rules-based model. It is not tailored to you, not a solicitation, and not a recommendation about your own money. Read the disclaimer before you use it.
What does the Daily Buy Size mean?
+
It is a multiple of your own normal daily Bitcoin buy. Very Cool: 3x Buy, about $75 if you buy $25 a day. Cool: 1x Buy. Normal: 1x Buy. Getting Warm: 0.5x Buy, about $12.50. Warm or Hot: 0x Buy, which buys no Bitcoin that day. On a 0x day the day's budget goes into the Skipped-Buy Reserve, and on a 0.5x day half of it does. Each day buys only its own multiple of your normal daily amount. The dollar figure is an example. We do not know your income.